There has been speculation about the prospect of Armenia breaking with Russia and developing a closer relationship with the EU. Taras Kuzio argues that despite positive statements about European integration from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia remains closely tied to Russia.
Over the last few years, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly floated the idea of moving Armenia away from Russia towards the EU. Since 2022, Armenia has at the same time increased its economic and trade dependency on Russia.
The goal of achieving European integration is contradicted by this reliance on Russia. If this is an example of Armenia pursuing a “multi-vector foreign policy” then it appears a uniquely contradictory one.
Double standards
Armenia’s contradictory foreign policy is assisted by Russia on the one hand and the US and EU on the other. Russia’s strategic interest has always been to increase the integration of former Soviet republics as much as possible with the aim of strengthening its sphere of influence in Eurasia.
The US and EU treat Armenia differently to Belarus. The US and EU turn a blind eye to Armenia’s massive involvement in the re-export of western goods to Russia, which Yerevan continues to obfuscate through diplomatic discourse. Meanwhile, the West punishes Belarus for openly assisting Russia in evading western sanctions.
It is true that Armenia is a democracy and Belarus a dictatorship, but this alone cannot explain why the US and EU have treated Armenia so differently. Both countries are after all founding members of the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union.
Pashinyan has suspended Armenia’s participation in the CSTO, but he has not mentioned Armenia reviewing its relationship with the Eurasian Economic Union. This would be near impossible as Armenia is completely reliant on Russia for its energy needs while its economic dependency has grown since 2022.
Armenia is the only close Russian ally which has signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU. This provides limited access with lower barriers to the EU customs zone. Countries cannot be in two customs zones and as long as Armenia remains in the Eurasian Economic Union, it cannot upgrade to an Association Agreement with the EU. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which do have Association Agreements, have never joined the Eurasian Economic Union.
Circumventing sanctions
Armenian officials counter accusations of involvement in the re-export of western goods to Russia in three ways. The first is to flatly deny this is taking place. Armenian Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan told reporters earlier this year that “talks about circumventing sanctions are nothing more than talk”.
The second is to claim Armenia is controlling and preventing the re-export of sanctioned goods. In May 2023, over a year after western sanctions were imposed on Russia, the Armenian government adopted Decree 808-N, approving a list of 38 national security-sensitive goods that are sanctioned. This was explicitly undertaken to try to prevent the US and EU imposing sanctions on Armenia.
This argument is also made by China, whose trade with Russia has also massively increased since 2022. Armenia and China ignore the fact that many goods that are not sanctioned are considered dual use. These goods are consumer items on the surface, but in reality can be used by the Russian military-industrial complex.
The third is to draw on long-established pro-Russian ties. Pashinyan has said that despite Armenia’s strategic relations with Russia and membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia “cannot afford to be placed under western sanctions” and “therefore, in our relations with Russia, we will act on a scale that allows us to avoid western sanctions”.
In June 2022, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to western sanctions and predicted the Russian economy would survive their impact. Khachaturian said the Armenian-Russian “historical friendship” was decided “not by me [but] our ancestors who had decided 200 years ago or earlier that we must live together and make joint efforts to develop”.
Ever closer ties
Why have the US and EU turned a blind eye to Armenia’s involvement in the re-export of western goods to Russia? The reason is partly because Armenia is a small economy that could not survive if it endured western sanctions and partly because Armenia is allegedly re-orientating itself to the West. This is despite Armenia’s pro-European rhetoric being contradicted by its growing economic ties with Russia.
At a joint press conference with Putin in September 2022, Pashinyan said there was a need to look at “new opportunities” in the face of “emerging challenges” brought about by western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pashinyan also thanked Putin and the Russian government, noting that Armenia and Russia “manage to deal with these threats together”.
In enabling Russia’s military machine, Pashinyan (like China) is making it more likely that Russia could win its war against Ukraine. If Armenia, China, Turkey, the UAE and Central Asia no longer re-exported western goods to Russia, its military machine would soon collapse.
Pashinyan does not seemingly understand that an emboldened and militarily stronger Russia will never loosen its grip on Armenia. A weakened and militarily defeated Russia would be unable to prevent Armenia from leaving the CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union and integrating into Europe. Meanwhile, in ignoring Yerevan’s involvement in the evasion of western sanctions against Russia, the US and EU are tying Armenia ever more closely to the Kremlin and thereby preventing their goal of the country’s re-orientation from Eurasia to Europe.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
