Milorad Dodik’s influence over the politics of Bosnia and Herzegovina could be coming to an end, writes Marika Djolai.
On 27 March, a court in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) issued an international arrest warrant for Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska (RS). This came after a trial judgment was delivered in a criminal case against Dodik on 26 February, sentencing him to a year in prison and a six-year ban on holding political office.
The indictment, which also involved co-defendant Miloš Lukić (who was acquitted), was triggered by Dodik’s failure to implement a decision by Christian Schmidt, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, in July 2023. The ruling was long in the making for a politician who has held top positions since 1996, including Prime Minister and President of Republika Srpska, as well as a member of the tripartite Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik’s separatism
Dodik, the leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), once identified as a pro-Bosnian social democrat but gradually transformed into a Serb nationalist. Over the past 15 years, he has systematically undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s stability and openly advocated for the country’s breakup, for which he has been placed under US and UK sanctions since 2017.
His 30-year political career could have been considered remarkable had it not been marred by corruption, clientelism, state capture and close ties with autocrats such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and his closest ally, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. He amassed an empire worth millions of euros, run with the help of his family, who are also subject to sanctions.
Republika Srpska is one of three entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina, alongside the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the self-standing Brčko District. The country’s complex governance and judicial structure, established under the Dayton Peace Accords, defines the jurisdiction of courts and legislative powers in entities and regulates the participation of each entity’s representatives in state institutions.
Dodik’s primary argument against the trial and ruling is that he does not recognise the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, rendering the judgment, in his view, invalid. He has the right to appeal the judgment, which will be reviewed by a second-degree court. If he does, a final ruling is expected by the end of 2025. If the verdict is upheld, Dodik will be 72 years old by the end of his sentence.
Instead of choosing the legal path of appeal, the judgment triggered an avalanche of reactionary measures from Dodik, pushed through in the Republika Srpska institutions, which are under his party’s control. These actions are the most substantive threat Bosnia and Herzegovina has faced in its three decades of post-war life.
Escalation of the situation
One thing is clear – Dodik has no intention of going down quietly, as he has much to lose. Within days of the judgment, new laws were adopted by the Republika Srpska National Assembly (NSRS) – establishing a separate High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (HJPC) and declaring certain state-level laws and institutions unconstitutional. However, the legal power to enact such laws lies exclusively with the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Two additional laws, long in the making, were amended in the Assembly in the same session – the so called “foreign agents law” targeting non-profit organisations receiving foreign funding, and changes to the Criminal Code of Republika Srpska to prohibit the operation of SIPA (the BiH State Investigation and Protection Agency), the Court, and the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina in this entity. The former is seen as a backward step by the EU, and a further obstacle to the country’s aspiration for EU membership.
In the second week after the ruling, on 13 March, the Republika Srpska National Assembly debated a new draft constitution which foresees formation of a Republika Srpska army and judiciary, the introduction of border police along its boundary with the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the possibility of the entity’s self-determination.
Following these highly problematic actions, the Bosnia and Herzegovina Prosecutor’s Office issued a central arrest warrant for Dodik, Republika Srpska Prime Minister Radovan Višković and Republika Srpska National Assembly Speaker Nenad Stevandić, citing violations of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional order through the newly adopted legislation. Though justified, the warrant further inflamed an already tense situation, for which even High Representative Schmidt lacks a peaceful solution.
Cracks in Dodik’s support
In the third week following the judgment, a visibly anxious Dodik turned against his own supporters, Republika Srpska citizens and Bosnia and Herzegovina state employees, who ignored his orders to resign. He threatened those who continue working in state institutions, including the SIPA and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, with seizure of their private property.
At the same time, cracks in his perceived support network – both local and international – began to emerge. On behalf of the new administration, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a clear message of support for Bosnia and Herzegovina unity and against Dodik’s separatism. Only his long-term ally Viktor Orbán appeared to be ready to aid Dodik’s escape after the judgment, and continues to support him.
Dodik holds Serbian citizenship and has numerous questionable business interests in Serbia, particularly in Novi Sad, where he may seek refuge to evade prosecution in Bosnia and Herzegovina and receive support from Serbian President Vučić. Dodik travelled to Serbia, Israel and Russia defying the international arrest warrant against him, where he met with President Putin on 1 April. Dodik is counting on Russia to intervene but Putin’s concrete actions remain limited
Domestically, Dragan Čović, who has appeared to be on good terms with Dodik in recent years, stated publicly that his support is for Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state and respect for its Constitution. Mayor of Banja Luka, Draško Stanivuković, who is also Dodik’s political opponent, called for rational thinking and warned against rash decisions, despite condemning the trial as political. The absence of mass support or street protests in Republika Srpska speaks volumes about how citizens may be feeling about Dodik.
Dodik vs Republika Srpska
Dodik has politicised his trial, doing precisely what he accused the judiciary of – turning the legal process into a political battle. For the past few weeks, he has equated himself with Republika Srpska, which covers 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territory and claimed the trial was in fact attack on the entity.
The reality shows that he is anything but a protector. During his tenure, Republika Srpska has been pushed to the brink of default due to massive debt, which exceeded 1 billion Bosnia and Herzegovina convertible marks in 2023 as a result of uncontrolled borrowing. Standard and Poor’s credit rating for Republika Srpska warns of a possible downward trend if the authorities take concrete steps toward secession.
There is one simple truth. The havoc Dodik has created in the past few weeks is unlikely to save him and may not yield the results he was hoping for – to dismantle Bosnia and Herzegovina and establish an independent, sovereign Republika Srpska. He has also possibly gambled away long-term voters’ trust and became a nemesis of his own people. However, amidst a security and constitutional crisis, the stakes remain high in this gamble for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future and the future of Republika Srpska.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com
