Snowmobilers in northern Baileys Harbor on one of the mere nine days the Door County Snowmobile Trail Network was open this winter. Photos by Remy Carmichael.
Cross country skiers, snowshoers and snowmobilers have had particularly short seasons the last three winters, with snow sticking on the ground for just a few short weeks.
The Door County Snowmobile Trail Network was open for a mere nine days this year, Feb. 15-24. In comparison, all trails opened by Dec. 24 in 2013.
These perceptible changes are the result of significant shifts in Door County weather patterns over the last several decades, which affect daily life and the environment.
Between 1950 and 2020, temperatures in Door County have increased by an average of 3 degrees Fahrenheit, and precipitation has increased by 20%, according to the Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
These numbers are in line with state-level changes – an average temperature increase of between 2-3 °F and a 10-20% increase in precipitation, according to the Center for Climatic Research.
Changes in annual precipitation across Wisconsin between 1950-2020. From the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.
While a temperature change of a few degrees may seem inconsequential, the impact on the climate is noticeable.
Temperature increases in Wisconsin over the last century are the cause of more frequent heavy rainstorms, an increase in extremely hot days and ice freezing on the lake later and melting earlier, according to a 2016 report by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
More Disease-Carrying Insects
These shifts are more than just inconveniences. Extreme heat, for instance, kills more people in the United States than any other weather-related disaster, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Additionally, an increase in rain events can overwhelm existing sewer and runoff systems.
Hotter, wetter environments also foster habitats for disease-carrying insects like mosquitoes and ticks, according to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR), as well as the growth of algal blooms in the lake, which can harm fish and degrade water quality, according to the EPA.
Cases of Lyme Disease, which is caused by tick bites, have tripled in Wisconsin in the last 15 years, according to Health and Human Services.
Longer Growing Seasons
Agriculture, an industry in Door County that sold over $108.8 million in products in 2022, feels the effects of a changing climate.
Wisconsin farmers have experienced decreased dairy herd milk production during extreme heat events, shifts between warm and cold periods in the spring that damage fruit crops, and increased extreme rainfall intensifying potential for soil erosion, among other impacts, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
In the future, shorter winters will mean longer growing seasons. While this could be a benefit, it could also change or limit the kinds of crops grown, encourage invasive species growth, and increase irrigation needs, according to the EPA.
Door County To Experience Less Significant Warming
A 1.5 degree Celsius increase in global surface temperatures is the point set by the Paris Agreement in 2015 at which humans can limit the impacts of climate change, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As of 2023, Earth’s surface has warmed by 2.12°F (1.18 °C) since pre-industrial levels, according to NOAA.
The rate of increase in global atmospheric CO2 has been growing since the 1960s, with 2023-2024 representing the fastest year of growth on record, according to the Met Office. The current rate outpaces pathways set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit global warming to 2.7 °F (1.5 °C) above pre-industrial levels.
Increase in annual temperature across Wisconsin between 1950-2020. From the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.
Temperature and precipitation trends are predicted to continue under the status quo, according to the Center for Climatic Research. By 2041-2060, average temperatures in Door County are expected to increase by an additional 4 °F, a similar climate to present-day Milwaukee. Winter precipitation is expected to continue to grow by 5% annually.
Warming in Door County is expected to be less significant than in the rest of the state as a result of Lake Michigan, which insulates the peninsula, according to the Center for Climatic Research.
These continued changes in the climate will result in further changes to the environment.