In the space of a few weeks, Donald Trump has torpedoed the Atlantic Alliance. He has politically demolished the collective defense pact that has united Americans and Europeans since 1949. The US no longer intends to support its allies in the defense of Ukraine. In the face of aggression, they are calling it quits, making peace on Moscow’s terms. If we understand the strategic reasoning behind this decision, Washington believes that transatlantic solidarity no longer serves its interests: the priority is not the fate of Ukraine, but normalization with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The treasures of friendship accumulated over 75 years, the density of economic trade on both sides of the ocean, the common belonging – until now – to the camp of liberal democracies, the gratitude of Europeans for the victory of 1945, all gone. There was no sentiment, no shared memory, and above all no morality when it came to striking a deal with the Kremlin. The same will be true when Trump makes another deal, this time with Xi Jinping’s China. Governments are cold monsters. The General was right: one day, the Americans will leave, said de Gaulle. One day, the world order will change. And here we are.
The US doesn’t need to formally denounce NATO. They are not, or not yet, talking about closing US bases in Europe: they are asking – quite rightly – that Europe contribute more to their funding. In the coming years, the US will no doubt reduce their forces on the ground – which went from 30,000 soldiers in 2014 to over 80,000 today. But Trump has disarmed NATO politically, draining it of what makes a collective defense alliance strong: reliability.
The US’s allies feel that their security is partly at stake in Ukraine, a non-NATO member. This is particularly true of the Baltic states, the central and eastern countries of Europe, and the Scandinavians. They know that Putin has violated every treaty signed by Russia guaranteeing the integrity of Europe’s borders. They take the Russian president seriously when he writes that Ukraine doesn’t exist, when he sabotages Georgia’s Europhile ambitions or when Moscow threatens Moldova. They believe, and rightly so, that Putin’s expansionism will not be satisfied with Donbas and Crimea, but with Kyiv: a Ukrainian government loyal to the Kremlin.
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