Seasoned former diplomat Kishore Mahbubani is a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute and author of nine books, including Has China Won? This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.
You’ve predicted that the geopolitical contest between the US and China is set to intensify and stretch beyond the next decade. However, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan just visited China and a call between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden is expected soon. Are these exchanges a signal that things are looking up?
I would say the best compliment that I can pay to the Biden administration is that they succeeded in the last two years in at least trying to stabilise the relationship between the US and China a bit. The stabilisation was good, but despite that, the contest continues. Do not forget that the Biden administration, in some ways, has been tougher on China than the Trump administration. Trump imposed a few trade tariffs but did not go beyond that. The Biden administration has created this concept of “small yard, high fence” to try and deprive China of sophisticated technologies.
The pressure on China has not subsided in any significant way. And here, the main problem with the Biden administration – or the US government in general – is that it seems to have mounted a campaign against China without any clear, comprehensive long-term strategy in mind. A strategy is intended to achieve certain goals. It is not clear what the goals of the Biden administration are – what would constitute a victory for the United States over China as a result of all these measures? That has never been spelled out. That leaves everyone somewhat confused. The Biden administration is trying to stabilise the relationship, but it is also imposing new restrictive measures. The key question is, what is their end goal?
One of the key points you have argued is that the US made a major strategic mistake by launching a contest with China without a long-term, comprehensive strategy. Has a clearer strategy or vision not emerged under the Biden administration, and how will a new US administration deal with the US-China rivalry?
The United States has taken various actions against China with no clear description of what the goals of these actions might be. Is it the goal of the US to overthrow the Communist Party? It cannot be done, because if it is done, it will be done by the Chinese people, not by the US. Is it the goal of the US to stop the economic growth of China?
Again, it cannot be done. Whether China grows will depend on the actions of its own people and the ingenuity of its leadership. Is it the goal of the US to try and isolate China like it successfully isolated the Soviet Union? It cannot be done because China has more substantive ties with more countries than the US does, especially in terms of trading relationships. We have a strange situation here. The US has taken several measures against China, but the goals have never been spelled out clearly.
