French farmers threaten nationwide protests as Prime Minister Michel Barnier heads to Brussels to plead his country’s case: The possibility that a trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur might soon be signed has been creating political turmoil in France and across Europe.
What is the EU-Mercosur agreement?
This is a proposed free-trade agreement between the EU and the countries in the Mercosur, an abbreviation of Mercado Común del Sur (“Southern Common Market”), a South American trade bloc, the full members of which are Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.
If finalized, it would be the most significant free-trade deal ever concluded by the EU, both in terms of the total population concerned (780 million people) and the volume of trade (between €40 and €45 billion in imports and exports).
The agreement aims to facilitate trade between Europe and South America by gradually eliminating nearly all customs duties on trade between the two blocs. The EU hopes to thereby boost exports of European goods that currently face high tariffs applied by Mercosur countries, such as cars, clothing and wine. The agreement also provides for a substantial beef import quota, the recognition of almost 400 protected geographical indications for products, and several other measures designed to facilitate European and South American companies’ mutual access to public procurement markets.
After a lengthy negotiation process that began in the early 2000s, the agreement was formally concluded on June 28, 2019. However, several involved countries, on both sides of the Atlantic, expressed hesitations that have delayed its ratification.
Brazilian President Lula’s election, in 2022, revived the matter, and the European Commission and Mercosur resumed talks to negotiate an annex to the deal, which was intended to clarify the text of the agreement and address the main criticisms that have been leveled against it.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen now hopes to reach a compromise before the end of the year. Two upcoming events could serve as opportunities for it to be officially signed: the G20 summit (in Brazil, from November 18-19); or the Mercosur summit (in Uruguay, set to be held from December 5-6).
Why are French farmers dissatisfied with it?
For several years now, this project has been a source of great concern among farmers, who have denounced the threat that a massive influx of South American foodstuffs could pose to the French market. The agreement includes cutting import tariffs on up to 45,000 tons of honey, 60,000 tons of rice and even 180,000 tons of sugar.
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However, the main point of contention has been the beef quota – 99,000 tons of beef that will be subject to a fixed tariff rate of 7.5% – as well as 60,000 tons of another type of bovine meat and 180,000 tons of poultry, which will be duty-free. Livestock farmers have condemned it as a form of unfair competition, as the farms in South America are larger, the health and environmental standards are less strict and the labor costs are lower.
One year after a vast European farmers’ protest movement, and with elections for farmers’ representatives set for January 2025, French farmers’ unions are strongly mobilizing their members against the EU-Mercosur agreement.
The majority unions, the FNSEA and the Young Farmers (JA), have called for protest action across all regions, starting on November 18: Protests are planned for Monday and Tuesday, in front of prefectures and at traffic circles, dubbed the “roundabouts of Europe.”
The country’s second-largest agricultural union – Coordination Rurale, some of whose leaders are close to the far right – has promised “an agricultural revolt” starting on Tuesday, November 19, with plans to “block food freight.”
The third-largest union, Confédération Paysanne, which champions small-scale types of farming and is also opposed to free-trade agreements, will not be joining in with the FNSEA-JA alliance’s protests, but intends to mobilize its members “with [its] own modes of action.” Professional associations in the beef (Interbev), poultry (Anvol), cereals (Intercéréales), and sugar (AIBS) sectors have also expressed their support for the protest movement.
Why does the French political class oppose this agreement?
In France, opposition to the agreement cuts across party lines. More than 600 members of parliament, from a wide range of political parties, recently expressed this stance in an op-ed in Le Monde, arguing that the agreement fails to meet “the democratic, economic, environmental and social criteria set by the Assemblée Nationale and the Sénat.” This unanimity has been echoed in civil society, where opposition to the EU-Mercosur agreement has rallied together an unprecedented coalition of farmers, environmentalists and detractors of free-trade agreements.
In 2020, a commission of experts, led by environmental economist Stefan Ambec, tasked by the government to assess the treaty’s potential effects, concluded that the agreement “represented[d] a missed opportunity for the EU to use its negotiating power to obtain solid guarantees that meet the environmental, health, and broader societal expectations of its fellow citizens.” The report cited risks such as deforestation in Mercosur countries, which could increase by 5% annually over the six years following the agreement’s ratification, due to the predicted rise in beef production.
A recent audit by the European Commission, published in October, reinforced concerns about health risks raised by the agreement’s detractors. It concludes that Brazil, the world’s leading beef exporter, cannot guarantee that the red meat it exports to the EU has not been produced using estradiol 17-β, a growth hormone that was banned in Europe decades ago but is still widely used in Brazil.
Although he initially defended the agreement, Emmanuel Macron quickly changed his mind, framing his about-face as a retaliatory measure against the environmental policies of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s then-president, which were detrimental to the fight against climate change. Even though Bolsonaro has since left office, Macron has stood firm on the issue: in February, he celebrated (wrongly, as it now turns out) the discontinuation of negotiations.
Similarly, Prime Minister Barnier informed Von der Leyen that he was opposed to the agreement, on November 13, when he denounced “the disastrous impact that this agreement would have on entire sectors, particularly agriculture and livestock farming.”
However, while it has rejected the proposed agreement “as it stands,” the government has remained open to a revised version. It has requested that the European Commission renegotiate the text more thoroughly, particularly by incorporating “mirror clauses,” which would impose identical standards on products traded between the two blocs.
The French government has also supported adding binding environmental measures, to make the treaty compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. However, the EU Commission does not currently seem inclined to comply with these demands.
What are the chances of the agreement being ratified?
Whether the EU-Mercosur trade agreement can be signed by the end of the year hinges on the power dynamics between the European Commission and the EU member states. Yet, even if it is signed, the treaty will still need to be formally ratified by the EU before coming into force.
However, the inclusion of non-trade-related provisions in the agreement, which would overrule EU member states’ jurisdictions, would require an “XXL” ratification process: Unanimous authorization of the agreement by the EU 27 member states, followed by its approval by the European Parliament and all member states’ national parliaments. This would, therefore, give France a chance to veto the agreement.
To get around this difficulty, the European Commission has been considering splitting the agreement in two, thereby separating the international cooperation component – which could be sacrificed – from the trade component. The trade component would thus solely fall under the EU’s jurisdiction, and so its ratification would only require a qualified majority vote (one supported by at least 15 countries, while also representing 65% of the European population), which would deprive France of its veto.
In this scenario, France would need to rally at least four member states, together representing over 35% of the European population, to form a blocking minority. For the time being, however, Paris remains mostly alone in this endeavor. Although Poland, Austria, the Netherlands and Ireland have all regularly expressed concerns about the trade agreement, their combined clout would not be sufficient to prevent the deal from being voted through.
On the other hand, EU heavyweight countries like Germany and Spain have been pushing the European Commission to finalize the agreement by the end of the year, hoping to boost European growth. Italy and Portugal have also supported this idea. Berlin, in particular, would see Mercosur as a new market for its automakers. Furthermore, by strengthening ties with this resource-rich global region, Europe is also seeking to secure its access to key raw materials like lithium, copper, iron, and cobalt – which are crucial for its green energy transition.
