The UK Met Office has joined calls for above-average levels of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season activity, forecasting 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes as the most likely number to be experienced, citing signals for continued neutral El Niño conditions and vertical wind shear at near to or below-normal levels.
It’s the first hurricane forecast of the year from the UK government backed meteorological agency, which is one of the Atlantic hurricane forecasts we’ve tracked for many years.
For the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the UK Met Office forecasts 16 named tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes as the most likely number in each category to form this year.
These figures are all above the 1991 to 2020 average, while the figure for hurricanes is above the recent decadal average and for major hurricanes it is the same as the recent decade.
The UK Met Office says it gives a 70% chance the number of tropical storms will fall between 9 and 23, while for hurricanes it gives the same percentage chance for this to fall between 5 and 13, and for major hurricanes between 1 and 7.
The forecast also calls for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the course of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to be around 154, with a 70% confidence it falls between 61 and as high as 247.
Explaining its new forecast and the meteorology behind it, the UK Met Office said, “There is a signal in seasonal models for continued neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions through to the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August to October 2025).
“Vertical wind shear is predicted to be near to or lower-than-normal in most of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
“Sea-surface temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average in most of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, although not as high as the exceptional values seen in 2024.
“Whilst these factors would favour tropical storm activity in the North Atlantic, a forecast positive anomaly in surface pressure is not so favourable. However, when all factors are considered together the conditions appear to be favourable for most likely above average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, as seen in the 2025 forecast.”
After including the UK Met Office forecast to the other hurricane season forecasts we’ve tracked so far, the average across them calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Again, that’s above the 1991 to 2020 average, while the numbers for hurricanes and major hurricanes is the same as the recent decadal average.
Once again, as we always mention in relation to seasonal hurricane forecasts, it’s important to remember that the number of storms that form, or that become hurricanes or major hurricanes, is not what really matters to interests in the catastrophe bond, insurance-linked securities (ILS), or reinsurance markets.
Clearly more storms means more chance of impacts, but it is the direction of travel of storms, their proximity to land and of actual landfalls that matter. With these mattering most in regions of high property density, urbanisation and so exposure or value concentration at-risk, both for the industry and the communities that might be affected by this year’s hurricane season.
Track the 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.