In an interview with EUROPP’s editor Stuart Brown, Anand Menon discusses whether the EU and UK are capable of rising to the challenges posed by Donald Trump’s second presidency.
What should Europe expect from Trump’s second presidency?
Simple answer, the unexpected. I think we’re in a situation where the impression I have is that Trump himself doesn’t know what he’s going to do, so there’s no reason why we should know either. It’s going to be unpredictable and probably contradictory. It’s going to be a very, very rocky ride.
Europe needs to prepare for the worst without necessarily expecting it. And the worst means tariffs. It means a diminished US security guarantee. These are all things it’s worth saying, particularly when it comes to security.
Over the next few decades, the United States is going to do less European security, regardless of who is in the White House. In a sense, this is something we need to be doing anyway. Trump just adds a degree of urgency because he’s so impulsive and you never know from one day to the next what he’s going to do.
You’ve mentioned the potential impact on trade. Is the EU market big enough to protect itself from tariffs?
The EU is probably big enough to protect itself from Trump’s tariffs. I’m not convinced the UK is. In a way, one of the things that Trump shows us is that outside of the European Union, the UK finds itself quite exposed in these troubled times.
The EU market is large enough that it could at least retaliate meaningfully in the event of tariffs. It’s not as easy for the UK to retaliate should the US impose tariffs on us. And if we end up in a situation where the UK tries to negotiate a special deal to avoid those tariffs, I suspect that will impact on our relationship with our EU partners. So there might be some difficult choices ahead of us for sure.
The role of big tech and social media companies in Trump’s success has received a lot of attention. Do the EU and UK have enough clout to take these companies on when it comes to issues like factchecking and misinformation online?
I think the EU has the clout in the sense that it’s a very, very big market, and one that these firms would very much like to be in. Whether the EU has the political will and whether it has the unity to achieve this is a slightly different question. And again, you can also pose that question for the UK.
What’s very interesting is that the day following Trump’s inauguration, we saw the UK’s Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and the Prime Minister criticising tech companies over some of the disinformation that was spread around the Southport murders.
It was a very interesting tone that they struck because it seemed they were saying that whatever links Elon Musk might have with the White House, there are certain standards we want to uphold here to protect our citizens. We’ll see whether that survives first contact with any pushback from the Trump administration, but I thought it was interesting that they took that tone.
Are there any opportunities for Europe from Trump’s presidency?
There are several potential opportunities. One is that if Trump’s America becomes an unwelcoming place for certain types of industry, particularly industries connected with the green transformation, it might be that Europe can make itself a more attractive home for some of those industries. You also might end up with some displacement of economic activity if the US shields itself with a high tariff wall. In some ways, that could work to the benefit of the EU, though globally, it would have negative consequences.
I also think looking at Trump allows us to learn some interesting lessons about politics. You have a situation where a majority of the American people have voted for a disruptor because the previous system wasn’t working. And I think this drills home, if it needed to be drilled home at all, the message that government needs to deliver for its people. Otherwise, people turn their back and look for insurgent alternatives which will do no one any good in the medium to long term, but can seriously disrupt our politics and economies.
Anand Menon was speaking before an LSE event – Leadership or drift: what’s next for US foreign policy? – hosted by the Phelan United States Centre.
Note: This article gives the views of the interviewee, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Phatooo / Shutterstock.com
