The 2024 European Parliament elections produced a majority for political groups on the right. But should we expect right-wing policies? Drawing on a new study, Philipp Broniecki and Bjørn Høyland examine coalition potential among right party groups in the new parliament and show on which topics the right can find common ground.
In the new European Parliament (2024-2029), the four party groups on the right together hold 52% of the seats. However, given the historical lack of unity on the far right and the reluctance of the centre-right to cooperate with the far right, some consider right policies unlikely. The four right groups from centre-right to far right are: the European People’s Party (EPP), the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Patriots for Europe (PfE), and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN).
EU politics differ from national politics; there is no coalition government based on a negotiated contract. Instead, coalitions form for each bill anew. Previous parliaments were characterised by a grand coalition of centre-left and centre-right with the liberals acting as kingmaker. Cooperation with the far right was against the norm often referred to as the cordon sanitaire. The current Zeitgeist, however, is one of a normalisation of far-right ideas and increasingly of cooperation between the centre-right and far right. In which areas are we most likely to see such an alliance?
Three coalitions
To identify the topics with the largest potential for right coalition formation, we examined voting behaviour in the previous parliamentary term (2019-24) and calculated the share of votes where three types of right coalitions diverged from other members of the grand coalition, the centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups. We distinguish between three types of right coalitions: 1) Grand Right, uniting the centre-right and far right; 2) Far-Right, uniting far-right groups but excluding the centre-right EPP; and 3) Centre Right+, uniting the centre-right with at least one additional far-right group but not all.
The Grand Right coalition is the only realistic coalition requiring far-right participation that could form a majority in the European Parliament. This coalition was rare in the previous term but could form in two ways: either the centre-right joins the Far-Right coalition, or all far-right groups join the Centre Right+ coalition. The most likely scenario for a Grand Right coalition is the EPP aligning with far-right groups on cultural, security or climate issues. The second most likely scenario is far-right groups uniting with the EPP on economic issues.
Far-right parties mobilise around wedge issues – issues where mainstream parties hold similar positions but where their voters and representatives are split internally. In the European Parliament, national delegations organise into supranational party groups, amplifying internal frictions on wedge issues.
These wedge issues have split the centre-right from the far right. In the European Parliament, such issues are EU Integration, migration, climate and gender equality, as well as crisis politics such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wedge issues are core to the far right. One option for cooperation is that the centre-right adopt these ideas and thus further normalise them. Another option for cooperation is along traditional left-right economic conflict. Here, the far right are split but could unite with the centre-right to form a right majority.
Our results, shown in Figure 1, indicate that for 9% of the votes taken in the previous parliament, there was agreement among all party groups on the right of the political spectrum, opposing the two centre-left groups – S&D and Renew – that formed the grand coalition with the EPP. Had these votes been taken in the current European Parliament, the right would have had a majority.
Figure 1: Coalitions in the European Parliament (2019-24)
Note: Grand Right = Pluralities of EPP, ECR, PfE, and ESN voted together against pluralities of the S&D and Renew groups. Far Right = pluralities of ECR, PfE, ESN voted together against EPP, S&D, and Renew. Centre Right+ = pluralities of EPP and at least one of ECR, PfE, and ESN voted together against S&D and Renew. Other = all other coalitions.
A Far Right coalition formed in 18% of votes, with far-right parties (ECR, PfE, ESN) but excluding the EPP. These votes could turn into majorities if the EPP joins the far right. A Centre Right+ coalition occurred in 7% of votes, where the EPP aligned with at least one other right-wing group. Here, a majority would require the far-right groups to align with the EPP.
What unites the right?
We distinguish between legislative and non-legislative votes, as well as final passage votes and part votes (amendments) to determine whether the right prioritises symbolic opposition over policy influence – the reason is that legislative votes have greater policy implications and final passage votes are more visible but key changes are often made in more conflictual amendments.
Our results suggest otherwise. When we compare right coalitions to other coalitions, legislative votes are not substantively more or less common. Across all right coalitions, however, the focus is more on amendments than final passage votes. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that the right seeks to influence policy rather than engage in symbolic opposition.
The topic with the greatest potential to unite the right overall is European Parliament Elections, Electoral Law, Election Interference. In 69% of all votes on this topic, one of the three right coalitions formed. The remaining topics to complete the top five right topics are: 2) EU Values, Racism, Xenophobia, Diversity (60%); 3) Migration, Asylum, Refugees, Schengen, External Borders (55%); 4) EU Citizenship, Rights and Protection (54%); 5) Climate and Environment (53%). None of these topics reflect traditional left-right politics. The right has the most common ground on wedge issues.
When we examine the right coalitions separately, we find that the Grand Right also includes economic policy and the Centre Right+ even focuses mostly on economic policy such as monetary policy, the single market, agriculture and the budget. This means there is scope for the centre-right to build right coalitions on economics. However, the greatest overlap between right parties is on issues that relate to values, to climate politics and to migration.
Overall, we find that following the 2024 elections, the right in the European Parliament has the potential to substantially influence policy. This potential could be even greater if the centre-right EPP joins the far right on security, climate and/or cultural issues, or if the far right aligns with the EPP on economic issues. The opportunity for right-wing policies is real, particularly because majorities are formed on an issue-by-issue basis, which facilitates linkages and policy-trades across topics.
The EPP’s choices will shape the policy direction of the new parliament. If the EPP moves to the right on climate and culture, the progressive stance that the European Parliament has maintained on such matters may fade. Conversely, if the EPP unites the far-right groups on economic issues, the normalisation of the right in European politics will be complete.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Shutterstock / Shutterstock.com
