Germany’s federal election on 23 February is almost certain to produce a significant decrease in the number of women in the German parliament, write Corinna Kroeber and Lena Stephan.
Following the publication of candidate lists by the Federal Returning Officer, it is already foreseeable that the new Bundestag will be even more male-dominated than in the past. The proportion of women in parliament will undoubtedly decrease – and this is not accidental but a direct consequence of the new electoral law, which reinforces existing inequalities.
Since the late 1990s, the proportion of women in the Bundestag has stagnated at around 30%. For those who argue that half the population should be represented by half the seats in the Bundestag, this figure is already unsatisfactory. While the proportion of women in the Bundestag stood at 34.8% after the 2021 election, the number of women MPs will shrink significantly after Sunday’s federal elections. Three key mechanisms are responsible for this.
Fewer list seats
The new electoral law stipulates that the seats allocated based on the second vote are first filled with directly elected candidates, and only the remaining seats are assigned through party lists. As a result, the number of list seats will decrease by about 100. This is particularly detrimental to women, as they are far more likely to enter parliament through party lists than through direct mandates.
In 2021, women won 41% of the list seats but only 26% of the direct mandates. One reason for this is that party gatekeepers still believe that women have lower chances of winning direct mandates. The loss of 100 list seats means that women will lose out in a segment where they were better represented. Fewer list seats automatically means fewer women in the Bundestag.
Men dominate the competition for promising list positions
With fewer available list seats, competition for high-ranking positions on party lists intensifies. In this internal competition, women are systematically disadvantaged, as evidenced by a comparison of party lists from 2021 and 2025. This is particularly visible in the SPD: while 58% of the SPD’s list seats in 2021 were won by women, only 48% of those positions in 2025 are occupied by women. Considering that the total number of list seats has shrunk by a factor of 0.76 due to the electoral reform, the share of women in promising list positions drops to just 36% – 22 percentage points lower than in 2021.
This trend is observable across all parties, though the gap between women elected in 2021 and those projected to be elected in 2025 varies depending on how many women a party originally put forward to run for parliament. Based on the 2021 election results, it can be estimated that the share of women in list seats for The Left will decline by 15 percentage points, by 11 percentage points for the Greens, by 6 percentage points for the CDU, by 5 percentage points for the FDP and by 3 percentage points for the AfD.
Women are more likely to lose their direct mandates due to narrower margins
Under the new electoral law, directly won constituency mandates are forfeited if the number of direct mandates a party wins exceeds the seats allocated based on second votes. This makes the individual performance of candidates in their constituencies even more crucial.
Here, a systematic gender difference exists in Germany: on average, women receive about 0.5 percentage points fewer votes than men. Research suggests that this is not primarily because voters trust women candidates less, but rather because women are often nominated in districts where their party is weaker. Regardless of the reason, the effect is clear: directly elected women are less likely than directly elected men to secure a seat in the Bundestag.
Beyond these structural effects of the electoral system, a predicted political shift to the right will also play a role. The CDU, CSU and AfD – parties that traditionally have a lower proportion of female candidates – are expected to gain seats, while parties with more women are likely to lose seats.
Why does it matter?
Empirical research shows that representatives who share certain social characteristics with underrepresented groups are more likely to advocate for their interests. This means that women in parliament are more likely to put women’s political issues on the agenda and bring marginalised perspectives to the forefront. Their presence in the legislative process is therefore not just symbolic but has tangible effects on policy content.
Moreover, a fair representation of women influences public perception of democracy. When citizens see themselves reflected in their elected representatives, trust in the political system increases. Another effect of equal representation is its role-model function: the visibility of women in political office can encourage other women and girls to become politically active.
In the long run, this shifts societal attitudes and increases the acceptance of women in leadership positions. In short, a high level of women’s representation is not just a marker of equality but a fundamental requirement for a functioning, inclusive and democratically legitimate political system.
What can be done?
Based on our analysis, two key questions arise for voters in the 2025 Bundestag election and for German society. First, what can voters do now if they care about gender-equitable power distribution?
Even though the new electoral law reinforces structural barriers for women, voters still have a direct means of influence: the first vote. Those who value a more balanced and fair representation of women should keep these projections in mind when casting their vote for a direct candidate and, in case of doubt, choose the democratic women candidate.
The second question is what should be done to make the political system more gender equal. In the long run, structural reforms are needed to ensure equal opportunities in politics. A legal quota for party lists would be an effective solution.
This could prevent women from being systematically pushed out of parliament and ensure they are adequately represented. How exactly such a measure could be implemented in Germany remains controversial. Previous attempts at electoral reform have been struck down by the Constitutional Court, so quotas are not entirely unimaginable in Germany.
It is also important to note that our analysis focuses exclusively on the expected impact on the numerical representation of women in the Bundestag after the 2025 German federal election. Overall, the Bundestag is expected to become significantly less diverse, as these trends will also affect the representation of other marginalised groups.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Mummert-und-Ibold / Shutterstock.com
