Several months ago, I examined what was shaping up to be a very dark ending to the Ukraine conflict. Russia and the United States would draft a peace agreement requiring that Ukraine cede substantial territory to Russia, as well as potentially granting immunity to Russian officials for international crimes and enabling the mass deportation of Ukrainians from Russian controlled areas. The U.S. and Russia would present that agreement to Ukraine as a take-it-or-leave it proposition. If Ukraine signed, it would obviously do so because of Russian coercion via the use of force in 2014 (Crimea) and 2022 (the rest of Ukraine). If it did not, the war would continue, with the U.S. likely withdrawing its logistical and intelligence support from Ukraine as a result.
That account turned out to be overly optimistic. While as of this writing the negotiations are proceeding in fits and starts, the main talks in Saudi Arabia have begun without Ukraine’s direct participation. While Ukraine has few options in the face of a seemingly unified Russian-American front, it has nonetheless made clear that it will not accept any agreement that allows Russia to annex all the territory it currently occupies or one that does not provide for credible third-party security guarantees. It also objects to other Russian demands, such as the calling of elections. A U.S. envoy has described the status of the Russian occupied territories the “elephant in the room” at the negotiations. These developments thus present the very real possibility that Russia and the US will deal with the Ukrainian objections by simply removing it from the process entirely and concluding an agreement to which Ukraine is not a party.
